Will Rogue One Ring in a New Year at the Box Office?

The holiday frame at the box office is always a crowded one, but this year seems to be more jam-packed than years prior. There were six new movies opening between December 16 and December 23,Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,Collateral Beauty,Passengers,Sing,Assassin’s CreedandWhy Him?, with Paramount’sFencesalso expanding nationwide. None were able to come close toRogue Oneover theChristmas holidayweekend, as it took in $64.3 million for the three-day weekend, and $96 million for the four-day holiday weekend. This weekend, there is actually no competition forRogue One, at least in wide release, meaning it should have no trouble taking the top box office spot for a third weekend in a row.

TheStar Wars spin-offwill only have two indies in limited release as its competition this weekend, Bleecker Street’s critically-acclaimedPatersonand GKIDS' animated filmOcean Waves, both of which are opening in limited release tomorrow, December 28.Box Office Mojodoesn’t have exact theater counts forPatersonorOcean Waves, but they surely won’t be in enough theaters to giveRogue Onea run for its money. With no other films expanding this weekend, and no new films in wide release, we’re predicting this will be the rare weekend where the top 10 remains completely intact from last weekend, withRogue Oneremaining atop the box office for a third weekend in a row with $29.2 million.

Rogue Onehas currently earned $318 million domestically and $555.4 million worldwide, from a whopping $200 million budget. As of now, it’s currently the ninth highest-grossing movie of the year, and if it hits its $29.2 million projection for this weekend, it will leap aheadSuicide Squad($325.1 million),Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice($330.1 million) andZootopia($341.2 million) as the sixth highest-grossing movie of the year. It still has some work to do to get into the top 5 for the year, though, which is comprised ofDeadpool($363 million),The Jungle Book($364 million),The Secret Life of Pets($368.4 million),Captain America: Civil War($408.8 million) andFinding Dory($486.2 million). It remains to be seen how it will fare against the competition next year, or ifRogue One: A Star Wars Storywill be able to surpass $1 billion at the worldwide box office.

As stated earlier, we’re predicting the top 10 will remain unchanged, withSingstaying put in second place with $18.6 million, followed byPassengers($7.4 million),Why Him?($6 million) andAssassin’s Creed($5.3 million). The top 10 will be rounded out byMoana($4.8 million),Fences($3.9 million),La La Land($3.6 million),Office Christmas Party$2.7 million) andCollateral Beauty$1.9 million. Out of last weekend’s four newcomers,Singwas the only critically-acclaimed new releae with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes).Passengersscored a 32% RT rating, withWhy Him?earning a 41% RT rating whileAssassin’s Creedearned just a 19% RT score. As of now,Patersoncurrently has an impressive 93% rating on RT, although there aren’t enough reviews posted forOcean Wavesquite yet.

Paterson (Adam Driver) is a hardworking bus driver in Paterson, N.J., who follows the same routine every day. He observes the city and listens to fragments of conversations while picking up and dropping off his passengers. Paterson also writes heartfelt poems in a notebook, walks his dog and drinks one beer in a bar after his shift is over. Waiting for him at home is Laura (Golshifteh Farahani), his beloved wife who champions his gift for writing.Patersonis written and directed byJim Jarmusch, with a supporting cast that includesRizwan Manji,Barry Shabaka Henley,Chasten Harmon,William Jackson HarperandMethod Man.

Ocean Waveswas released in Japan in 1993, but it never received a theatrical or a home video release in the United States, until now. Rarely seen outside of Japan,Ocean Wavesis a subtle, poignant and wonderfully detailed story of adolescence and teenage isolation. Taku and his best friend Yutaka are headed back to school for what looks like another uneventful year. But they soon find their friendship tested by the arrival of Rikako, a beautiful new transfer student from Tokyo whose attitude vacillates wildly from flirty and flippant to melancholic. When Taku joins Rikako on a trip to Tokyo, the school erupts with rumors, and the three friends are forced to come to terms with their changing relationships. Ocean Waves was the first Studio Ghibli film directed by someone other than studio foundersHayao MiyazakiandIsao Takahata, as directorTomomi Mochizukiled a talented staff of younger employees in an adaptation ofSaeko Himuro’s best-selling novel. Full of shots bathed in a palette of pleasingly soft pastel colors and rich in the unexpected visual details typical of Studio Ghibli’s most revered works,Ocean Wavesis an accomplished teenage drama and a true discovery.

The top 10 will be rounded out byMoana$4.8 million),Fences($3.9 million),La La Land($3.6 million),Office Christmas Party($2.7 million) andCollateral Beauty($1.9 million). Next weekend marks the first official frame of 2017, with Screen Gems’Underworld: Blood Warsbeing only new movie opening in wide release. Focus Features is also expandingA Monster Callsnationwide, but no exact theater count has been given yet. Also opening in limited release is Film Movement’sThe Ardennes, IFC’sI, Daniel Blakeand Well Go USA’sRailroad Tigers. Take a look at our projected top 10 for the weekend of December 30.