Will Moana Conquer Its Second Weekend at the Box Office?

Disney’s animated adventureMoanahad no trouble taking down three fellow newcomers over theThanksgiving holidayweekend at the box office, bringing in $56.3 million over the three-day weekend and $82 million over the five-day extended weekend. Starting this Friday, it will only have one newcomer to face, Blumhouse’s horror-thrillerIncarnate, which is expected to debut in less than half the theatersMoanais playing in. With that being said,Moanashould have no trouble repeating atop the box office with a projected $27.3 million.

Box Office Mojoreports thatIncarnatewill open in approximately 1,500 theaters, a far cry from the 3,875 theaters thatMoanaopened in over the holiday weekend. The weekend after Thanksgiving is traditionally a weak one at the box office, with holdovers from earlier in the month almost always dominating over the meager competition doled out by the studios. In fact, sincebox office figuresstarted being made official by the studios in 1982, there has only been three years year where a new release has triumphed at the box office.

The first time this box office oddity happened was in 1988, with the release ofThe Naked Gun: From the Files of Police Squad!, which won with $9.3 million. In 1991,Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Countrybecame the second new release to conquer this weekend with $18.1 million, withThe Last Samuraibecoming the last new release to do so in 2003, when it took the top spot with $24.2 million. That tradition doesn’t look to change any time soon, with Disney’sanimated adventurelooking to have no trouble retaining the top spot this weekend.

Moanais set the ancient South Pacific world of Oceania, where a born navigator, sets sail in search of a fabled island. During her incredible journey, she teams up with her hero, the legendary demi-god Maui, to traverse the open ocean on an action-packed voyage, encountering enormous sea creatures, breathtaking underworlds and ancient folklore.Dwayne Johnsonleads the voice cast as Maui, with newcomerAuli’i Cravalhovoicing the title character. The supporting voice cast is rounded out byAlan Tudykas Heihei,Nicole Scherzingeras Sina andJemaine Clementas Tamatoa.

Incarnatefollows a scientist with the ability to enter the subconscious minds of the possessed who must save a young boy from the grips of a demon with powers never seen before, while facing the horrors of his past. The horror-thriller starsAaron Eckhart,Carice Van Houten,Karolina Wydra,Matthew Nable,Keir O’Donnell,Catalina Sandido Moreno,David MazouzandEmjay Anthony. We’re projecting that it will barely crack the top 10, taking in $1.6 million in the 10th spot.

With only one new release this weekend, the top 10 will largely remain intact, withMoanarepeating at the top with $27.3 million, followed byFantastic Beasts and Where to Find Themwith $23.2 million,Doctor Strangewith $7.1 million,Alliedwith $6.8 million andArrivalrounding out the top 5 with $6.2 million. The top 10 will be rounded out byTrolls($5.4 million),Almost Christmas($3.9 million),Bad Santa 2($3 million),Hacksaw Ridge($2.7 million) andIncarnate($1.6 million). Despite the lack of newcomers in wide release, there are a number of limited release titles that could fare well in platform releases.

Fox Searchlight will roll out its potential awards season contenderJackiethis weekend, along with Archstone’s dramaAnonymous, First Run’s documentaryBest and Most Beautiful Things, Magnolia’s horror-thrillerThe Eyes of My Mother, GVN Releasing’s dramaA Girl Like Grace, Distrib Films' dramaIn Her Nameand IFC’s dramaThings to Come. It isn’t known if any of these films will be expanded nationwide in the weeks to come, but that will likely depend on how they fare in limited release this weekend.

Looking ahead to next weekend, Paramount’sOffice Christmas Partyis the only movie opening in wide release, with a slew of limited release titles also arriving. Lionsgate will roll out its critically-acclaimed musicalLa La Land, starringEmma StoneandRyan Gosling, alongside Magnolia’s documentaryHarry Benson: Shoot First, Screen Media’s thrillerSugar Mountain, Viva Pictures Distribution’s romantic comedyThe Bounce Backand Yash Raj’s dramaBekfire. Take a look at the projected top 10 for the weekend of December 2, and check back on Sunday for the box office estimates.