Will Independence Day 2 Destroy Finding Dory at the Box Office?

After several weeks of underperforming sequels, includingNeighbors 2: Sorority Rising,X-Men: Apocalypse, andTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, Pixar’sFinding Doryhelped breathe new life into the summerbox officewith a whopping $135 million opening weekend. This weekend, the lovable yet forgetful fish squares off against four new movies all opening in wide release, 20th Century Fox’sIndependence Day: Resurgence, Sony’sThe Shallows, STX Entertainment’sFree State of Jonesand Broad Green Pictures’The Neon Demon. WhileIndependence Day 2will put up the biggest fight,Finding Dorywill most likely prevail at the box office for a second week in a row.

Finding Dory’s opening weekend haul breaksShrek the Third’s $121.6 million record as the biggest debut for an animated movie, while also surpassingToy Story 3’s $110.3 million mark for the biggest debut in Pixar history.Finding Dory, which features a star-studdedvoice castincludingEllen DeGeneres,Albert Brooks,Diane Keaton,Eugene Levy,Ty Burrell,Willem Dafoe,Ed O’NeilandIdris Elba, is already a hit with critics, earning an astounding 95% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. We’re predicting thatFinding Dorywill remain in the top spot this weekend with an estimated $81 million in its second frame.

If that prediction is accurate, it will represent a 40% drop from last weekend, which very well could happen considering that none of the four movies hitting theaters this weekend are as family-friendly asFinding Doryis.Box Office Mojoestimates thatIndependence Day: Resurgencewill have the widest opening this weekend, with an estimated 3,900 theaters, which still comes in far belowFinding Dory’s 4,305-theater debut last weekend.The Shallowsis expected to debut in 2,800 theaters, withFree State of Jonesarriving in approximately 2,600 theaters, although no estimates were given forThe Neon Demon. As of now,Independence Day: Resurgence(43% on Rotten Tomatoes) andThe Neon Demon(50% on Rotten Tomatoes) aren’t faring well with critics, but no RT figures were ready yet forThe ShallowsorFree State of Jones.

We’re predicting thatIndependence Day: Resurgencewill debut in second place with $55.1 million, which would put it just over the originalIndependence Day’s debut of $50.2 million back in 1996. AfterIndependence Dayredefined the event movie genre, the next epic chapter delivers global spectacle on an unimaginable scale. Using recovered alien technology, the nations of Earth have collaborated on an immense defense program to protect the planet. But nothing can prepare us for the aliens' advanced and unprecedented force. Only the ingenuity of a few brave men and women can bring our world back from the brink of extinction.

Jeff Goldblum,Bill Pullman,Judd Hirsch,Vivica A. FoxandBrent Spinerall reprise their roles from the original 1996 blockbuster.Independence Day: Resurgencewill also introduce new characters played byLiam Hemsworth,Angelababy,Maika Monroe,Sela WardandJessie Usher. The sequel is directed byRoland Emmerichfrom a script byJames A. Woods,Nicolas WrightandCarter Blanchard, based on characters created byRoland EmmerichandDean Devlin.

Central Intelligencewill most likely drop to third place this weekend with $17.4 million, followed closely behind byThe Shallowswith $17.1 million. In the taut thriller The Shallows, Nancy (Blake Lively) is surfing alone on a secluded beach when she is attacked by a great white shark and stranded just a short distance from shore. Though she is only 200 yards from survival, getting there proves the ultimate contest of wills. It’s Jaws for a new generation. The supporting cast includesOscar JanedaandSedona Legge, withJaume Collet-Serradirecting from a script byAnthony Jaswinski.The Conjuring 2will likely round out the top 5 with $13.1 million.

Free State of Joneswill likely open in sixth place with $9 million. Written and directed by four-time Oscar nomineeGary Ross(The Hunger Games,Seabiscuit,Pleasantville), and starring Oscar winnerMatthew McConaughey,Free State of Jonesis an epic action-drama set during the Civil War, and tells the story of defiant Southern farmer, Newt Knight, and his extraordinary armed rebellion against the Confederacy. Banding together with other small farmers and local slaves, Knight launched an uprising that led Jones County, Mississippi to secede from the Confederacy, creating a Free State of Jones. Knight continued his struggle into Reconstruction, distinguishing him as a compelling, if controversial, figure of defiance long beyond the War.

The top 10 will be rounded out byNow You See Me 2($5.8 million),Warcraft$4.3 million,The Neon Demon($3.9 million) andX-Men: Apocalypse$2.8 million. Also opening in limited release this weekend is Independent’s sci-fi action-thrillerThe Call Up, Sony Pictures Classics' documentaryEat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words, Argot Pictures' documentaryFrom this Day Forward, The Orchard’sHunt for the Wilderpeople, Strand’s dramatic comedyThe Kind Words, Cohen Media Group’s dramaLes Cowboys, A24’s comedySwiss Army Manand IFC’s documentaryWiener Dog. We don’t know yet if these limited titles will expand in the weeks or months to come.

Looking ahead to next week, three new releases will hit theaters in wide release, Disney’sThe BFG, Warner Bros.‘The Legend of Tarzanand Universal’sThe Purge: Election Year. Also opening in limited release is Music Box Films’ dramaThe Innocents, The Orchard’s documentaryLife, Animated, Roadside Attractions' dramaOur Kind of Traitorand Magnolia’s horror filmSatanic. Be sure to check back on Sunday for the box office estimates, and again next Tuesday for the next round of predictions. Until then, check out our projected top 10 below.