Will Disney's Moana Rule the Thanksgiving Box Office?

Despite dominating at the box office last weekend with $74.4 million, Warner Bros.‘Harry Potterspin-offFantastic Beasts and Where to Find Themmay be in danger of relinquishing itsbox office crownalready. Four new releases hit theaters over a crowded Thanksgiving holiday frame, with Disney’sMoana, starringDwayne Johnson, Paramount’sAllied, starringBrad Pitt, Broad Green Pictures’Bad Santa 2starringBilly Bob ThorntonandRules Don’t ApplystarringAlden Ehrenreichvying for the box office crown. While it may come down to the wire, we’re predicting thatMoanaunseatsFantastic Beastsover the holiday weekend.

Box Office Mojoreports thatMoanais set to debut in over 3,800 theaters this weekend, which is still roughly 350 theaters less thanFantastic Beasts.Alliedis expected to roll out in approximately 3,000 theaters, whileBad Santa 2will debut in more than 2,500 theaters andRules Don’t Applyis expected to arrive in 2,300 theaters this weekend. It remains to be seen whether or notFantastic Beastswill drop any theaters in its second weekend, but it doesn’t seem likely. Still, even with this theater count advantage, we’re predicting thatMoanawill win the three-day weekend with $42.6 million, barely beating outFantastic Beasts and Where to Find Themwith $41.2 million.

That prediction isn’t for the five-day holiday weekend total, though, withMoanalikely taking in around $75 million to $80 million during that extended holiday frame. Out of the four new releases, Disney’sanimated adventureis by far the most critically-acclaimed, with a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes, with zero negative reviews out of 50.Alliedis currently at a 63% rating on RT, although the other two new releases haven’t fared so well.Rules Don’t Applyfalls just barely under the “Fresh” threshold with a 59% rating, whileBad Santa 2has a 35% rating so far.

In the ancient South Pacific world of Oceania,Moana, a born navigator, sets sail in search of a fabled island. During her incredible journey, she teams up with her hero, the legendary demi-god Maui, to traverse the open ocean on an action-packed voyage, encountering enormous sea creatures, breathtaking underworlds and ancient folklore.Dwayne Johnsonleads the voice cast as Maui, with newcomerAuli’i Cravalhovoicing the title character. The supporting voice cast is rounded out byAlan Tudykas Heihei,Nicole Scherzingeras Sina andJemaine Clementas Tamatoa.

Alliedwill come in third place with $14.2 million this weekend.Alliedis the story of intelligence officer Max Vatan (Brad Pitt), who in 1942 North Africa encounters French Resistance fighter Marianne Beausejour (Marion Cotillard) on a deadly mission behind enemy lines. Reunited in London, their relationship is threatened by the extreme pressures of the war. The supporting cast includesJared Harris,Lizzy Caplan,Simon McBurney,Matthew Goode,Anton LesserandRaffey Cassidy.

Bad Santa 2will debut in fourth place with $9.4 million.Bad Santa 2returns Academy Award-winnerBilly Bob Thorntonto the screen as America’s favorite anti-hero, Willie Soke. Fueled by cheap whiskey, greed and hatred, Willie teams up once again with his angry little sidekick, Marcus (Tony Cox), to knock off a Chicago charity on Christmas Eve. Along for the ride is ‘the kid’ - chubby and cheery Thurman Merman (Brett Kelly), a 250-pound ray of sunshine who brings out Willie’s sliver of humanity. Mommy issues arise when the pair are joined by Academy Award, Golden Globe and Emmy-winnerKathy Bates, as Willie’s horror story of a mother, Sunny Soke. A super butch super bitch, Sunny raises the bar for the gang’s ambitions, while somehow lowering the standards of criminal behavior. Willie is further burdened by lusting after the curvaceous and prim Diane, played by Emmy Award-nomineeChristina Hendricks, the charity director with a heart of gold and libido of steel.

Rules Don’t Applywill round out the top 5 with $8.1 million.Rules Don’t Applyfollows the unconventional love story of an aspiring actress (Lily Collins), her determined driver (Alden Ehrenreich), and the eccentric billionaire (Warren Beatty) who they work for. It’s Hollywood, 1958. Small town beauty queen and devout Baptist Marla Mabrey (Collins), under contract to the infamous Howard Hughes (Beatty), arrives in Los Angeles. At the airport, she meets her personal driver Frank Forbes (Ehrenreich), only two weeks on the job and also from a religiously conservative background. Their instant attraction not only puts their religious convictions to the test, but also defies Hughes’ #1 rule: no employee is allowed to have an intimate relationship with a contract actress. But Hughes' absurd behavior intersects with Marla and Frank in very separate and unexpected ways, and as they are drawn deeper into his bizarre world, their values are challenged and their lives are changed.

The top 10 will be rounded out byDoctor Strange($8 million),Trolls($7.7 million),Arrival($6.8 million),Almost Christmas($3.6 million) andHacksaw Ridge($3 million). On Friday, November 25, a number of films arrive in limited release, such as Oscilloscope Pictures’Always Shine, IFC’sEvolution, Independent’sKill Command, The Weinstein Company’sLion, EuropaCorp’sMiss Sloaneand Strand’s documentaryMifune: The Last Samurai. Two Focus Features' films will expand this weekend as well, withLovingjumping from 137 theaters to 429 theaters, whileNocturnal Animalsexpands from 37 theaters to 200 theaters.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the High Top Releasing thrillerIncarnateis the only movie to arrive in wide release, with a slew of films arriving in limited release. Fox Searchlight’s awards contenderJackiearrives alongside Archstone’s dramaAnonymous, First Run’s documentaryBest and Most Beautiful Things, Magnolia’s horror-thrillerThe Eyes of My Mother, GVN Releasing’s dramaA Girl Like Grace, Distrib Films' dramaIn Her Nameand IFC’s dramaThings to Comewill have have limited debuts this weekend. Take a look at our box office predictions below, and check back on Sunday for the box office estimates.