The latest entry in thePredatorfranchise,Prey, has been a breakout success. The fifth film in the movie series has scored thebest reviews of anyPredatorfilm, has received praise from audiences, and breathed new life into thePredatorfranchise.Huluboasted the film was themost successful original launchon the streaming service above any other previous film or television series, yet no full numbers were provided.
Ever sincePreywas announced as a Hulu exclusive, many have wondered why this film in a legacy film franchise was not getting the big screen treatment, and many fans have complained that they were robbed fromnot seeingPreyin theaters. August has notably been a wild month for summer movies, having the potential for a non-conventional film to be a big breakout hit. After a stacked summer movie season that saw big films opening on top of each other, August 2022 has been left notably vacant with the last big spectacle film beingBullet Train. Offerings are so slim thatTop Gun: Maverick, in its 12th weekend of release, managed to take the number two spot.
It feels like Disney and 20th Century Pictures missed out on a potential box office winner withPrey. But why was the film released on streaming, and what would its potential box office chances have been? Looking at the pastPredatorfilm releases indicates howPreymight have performed, and looking at two other film franchises might indicate wherePreycould have gone in terms of the box office.
Predator Box Office Has Never Been Remarkable
UnliketheAlienfranchise, which had bothAlienandAliensin the top 10 of their respective years,thePredatorfranchisehas been a much smaller box office draw, with most of the series' success coming from merchandising. In 1987,Predatorwas a box office hit, grossing $59 million domestically on an $18 million budget. 20th Century Fox quickly capitalized on a sequel and releasedPredator 2in 1990, but that film grossed $30 million domestic against a budget that matched that.
The box office disappointment doomed thePredatorfranchise into dormancy for 14 years until the release ofAlien vs Predator, in which the combined benefit of the two movie monsters made it the biggest opening weekend and biggest box office earner of any film in thePredatorseries. However, the lightning didn’t strike twist forAliens vs. Predator: Requiem. In the summer of 2010,Predatorswas released and grossed $52 million domestic against a $40 million budget. While successful, the film was not the major hit Fox wanted andPredatorswas quickly overshadowed by the film it opened the same weekend as,Despicable Me.
In 2018,The Predatorwas set to relaunch the franchise, and the studio gave it an increased budget of $88 million to maximize profits; however, the film made $51 million domestically and overall seemed to indicate that thePredatorfranchise was not a box office draw (the movie did $160 million worldwide though). Looking at bothPredatorfilms released since 2010,Predatorsopened to $24.8 million whileThe Predatorgrossed almost exactly that, with$24 million in its opening weekend.
Related:Predator: Six Genres and Targets The Character Should Hunt Next
Assuming audiences were not put off by the previous films,Preymight have also opened to a $24 million opening weekend using the previous two films as a baseline. It likely would not have toppedBullet Train’s$30.4 million (although it is also possiblePreycould have taken viewers away fromBullet Train), but would still have been a respectable opening. The question is how much it would have dropped in the following weeks, asPredatorsfell to the number eight spot in its second weekend with a 71.7% drop, whileThe Predatorfell to number four with a 62.7% drop. A moderate box office opening could be offset if a movie has a stronghold and, as indicated by what films were released the second weekend of August,Preywould not have faced much competition. Plus,Preyhas gotten some of the best word-of-mouth of any streaming release this year, which likely would have translated to continued ticket sales.
In 2012, 20th Century Fox made a deal with HBO to make the premium cable network home to the studio’s films after their theatrical window, and the deal was set for 10 years. The creation of HBO Max meant that it would be the service for 20th Century Fox films, making the streamer a must-have for filmgoers. When Disney acquired 20th Century Fox in 2019, the deal with HBO was still in effect, meaning that Disney had to honor it and no movie in production or filmed for theatrical release could go to Disney-owned streaming services like Disney+ or Hulu. This is why during the COVID-19 pandemic, none of the 20th Century Fox films likeNew Mutants,Death on the Nile,The Bob’s Burger’s Movie, orThe Kings Mancould be sent to Hulu. If they were sent to streaming, it would have to go to HBO Max, and Disney did not want to give their competitor a new streaming film.
Disney looks to be using the 20th Century Fox (now named 20th Century Pictures) brands to help create original material to boost Hulu, as they also have announcedplans for a newAlienfilmon the platform in addition to a reboot ofThe League of Extraordinary Gentlemen.
Prey Could Have Suffered From Past Franchise Mistakes
Prey’sstrong word of mouth and positive audience reaction online has one caveat that prevents a direct translation to the box office profit: not everyone who watched it on Hulu would have gone out to a theater and seen it. Not in the opening weekend, possibly later if the word of mouth was strong, but it is easier for audiences to watch it on a streaming service they already own in the comfort of their home as opposed to going out to the theater. In many ways,Preybeing available on streaming might have exposed it to more people than those who would have seen it in theaters.
Related:Prey: How Could (or Should) the Movie Connect to the Predator Franchise?
The other issue is that a strong word of mouth doesn’t always translate to box office success. The best example in recent years isTerminator: Dark Fate, which was seen as a redemption for the franchise after three disappointing sequels. The problem was audiences had been burned out byTerminator 3: Rise of the Machines,Terminator: Salvation, andTerminator: Genisys.Terminator: Dark Fate, despite gaining fans, was a box office bomb and was a victim of thecrimes of the previous entries.The Predatorin 2018 was billed as the big eventPredatorfilm, but poor reviews and a mediocre audience reaction likely would have been an uphill battle forPrey.
On the Other Hand, Prey’s Word of Mouth is Different
In a strange coincidence,Prey’srelease date of August 5 was alsothe same day thatRise of the Planet of the Apesopened back in 2011. That film, likePrey,was a dramatically lower-budget reimagining of a popular 20th Century Fox sci-fi franchise that also had a poorly received previous film.Rise of the Planet of the Apesopened to $54 million, above expectations, managed to hold the top spot for its second weekend, and dropped to number two in its third weekend.Rise of the Planet of the Apesbenefited from strong word of mouth from critics and audiences and there is a chance the same could have benefitedPrey.
August 2022 is a particularly slow month for big summer movies. Aside fromBullet Train,the majority of the films set for release are smaller genre films likeBodies Bodies Bodies,The Fall, andBeast,or films from the festival circuit likeEmily the Criminal,Breaking, andA Thousand Long Years of Waiting. All of those movies have the potential to be mid-budget hits, but it feels like the ideal box office climate to release a newPredatormovie, as there is little competition. Even ifPreydid not take the number one spot in its opening weekend againstBullet Train, it likely would have held better and possibly taken the top spot in its second weekend.Prey’sbudget has not been revealed yet, but it likely cost less than 2018’sThe Predatorand probably would have outgrossed it, making it the first time a soloPredatormovie was anunarguable box office hit since 1987. It will be interesting to see if possibleDan Trachtenberg follow-ups to Preywill be released in theaters.
