With all the talk about the Thanksgiving weekend box office poised to be really robust for moviegoing, it’s almost easy to forget that the holiday rush of late December is also expected to be huge for theatrical offerings. There are new titles for families and adults alike, and two of those family films –Mufasa: The Lion KingandSonic the Hedgehog 3– have officially entered box office tracking, and they are pretty much running neck and neck for their estimated opening weekends.
PerDeadline,Sonic the Hedgehog 3is expected to open to $55 million or more, whileMufasa: The Lion Kingcould roar to $50 million. Those estimates are very close, but since this is early tracking, it could change in the weeks ahead. The shift could happen even sooner forMufasaas it has trailers attached to another Disney effortalready doing killer box office,Moana 2. TheLion Kingprequel has already released four trailers and its marketing blitz is expected to truly kick into high gear on Dec. 2.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3has only released two trailers, but the franchise has been experiencing ongoing growth. Released in 2020 right before the ravages of the pandemic,Sonic the Hedgehogopened to $58 million on its way to $148.9 domestically and $319.7 million worldwide on an $85 million budget. The film was truly clipped by the pandemic but still performed well given what it was working against.Sonic the Hedgehog 2was released in 2022 and improved its opening weekend to $72.1 million, which ultimately resulted in a domestic finish of $190.8 million and a global haul of $405.4 million on a $110 million budget. Throw in theKnucklesseries that premiered on Paramount+ ahead of the release of the third film, and theSonicuniverse is growing, which is good news for Paramount Pictures.
‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ and ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’ Will Play Well Into the New Year
So, why an opening tracking number in the $50-55 million range for both films? One, it’s still very early and the marketing push hasn’t hit full throttle just yet.Sonic the Hedgehog 3debuted a new traileron Monday (its second), and it reportedly did well across all platforms. The second element here is that the Christmas holiday timeframe isn’t all about the opening weekend. These films leg it out until after the new year, so the bigger story is how they perform day to day. Openings for films such asSpider-Man: No Way Home($260.1 million) andAvatar: The Way of Water($134.1 million) during this period are truly the exception and not the rule, so these early tracking figures should not be looked at as disappointing as both films are expected to be huge hits.
New Mufasa Trailer is Filled With Lion King Lore & Finally Addresses Direct-to-DVD Sequels
The trailer pulls from both direct to video sequels, and addresses a criticism of the original film, but is that enough?
Directed by Barry Jenkins from a screenplay by Jeff Nathanson,Mufasa: The Lion Kingserves as a photorealistic animated prequelandsequel to the 2019 remake of 1994’sThe Lion King, which grossed over $1.6 billion worldwide during its theatrical run. In the film, Rafiki (John Kani) details the origins of Mufasa (Aaron Pierre) and Taka (Kelvin Harrison Jr.), who later becomes known as Scar. The story is told to Kiara (Blue Ivy Carter), the granddaughter of Mufasa and the daughter of Simba (Donald Glover) and Nala (Beyoncé Knowles Carter), with the tale beginning when Mufasa was an orphan befriended by Taka and adopted by Taka’s family. While the two become as close as brothers, the story will also detail how the rift began and how Prince Taka grew envious of his new sibling. The film also features the voices of Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose.
Directed by Jeff Fowler from a screenplay by Pat Casey, Josh Miller, and John Whittington,Sonic the Hedgehog 3continues the movie exploits of the popular video game series and finds Sonic (Ben Schwartz) and his friends facing off against a new enemy named Shadow (Keanu Reeves). The threat is so serious that Sonic and his pals have to recruit the help of the evil Dr. Robotnik (Jim Carrey) to neutralize the new antagonist. The film also stars Colleen O’Shaughnessey, Natasha Rothwell, Shemar Moore, James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Idris Elba, and Krysten Ritter.
Mufasa: The Lion KingandSonic the Hedgehog 3open in theaters nationwide on Dec. 20.
