Three newcomers kicked off the month of October vying for thebox office win, with Universal’s harrowing thrillerThe Girl On the Trainsquaring off against Fox Searchlight’s indie sensationBirth of a Nationand Lionsgate’s family comedyMiddle School: The Worst Years Of My Life. We predicted earlier this week thatThe Girl On the Trainwould win with $24.5 million, which turned out to be quite the accurate prediction.The Girl On the Trainended up winning with an estimated take of $24.6 million.

Box Office Mojoreports thatThe Girl On the Trainpulled in an impressive $7,844 per-screen average from 3,144 theaters, easily overtaking last weekend’s winner,Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, which dropped to second place with $15 million, followed byDeepwater Horizonwith $11.7 million,The Magnificent Sevenwith $9.1 million andStorksrounding out the top 5 with $8.4 million. The week’s other two new releases didn’t fare nearly as well as predicted, cracking the top 10 but not the top 5.

The Girl On the Trainisn’t as big a hit with movie critics as it was with its literary counterparts, with a 44% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, dropping from a 56% score earlier this week.The Birth of a Nation, writer-director-starNate Parker’s indie film that took Sundance by storm, and was purchased by Fox Searchlight for a record $17.5 million in January, has a 79% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, dropping from 81% earlier this week. Some believe that the 17-year-old rape accusation against writer-director-starNate Parkerwhich recently resurfaced did in fact hurt its box office performance and/or its Oscar chances. Lionsgate’sMiddle Schoolis currently sitting at a 59% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

The Girl On the Trainis aharrowing thrillerfollowing Rachel (Emily Blunt), who is devastated by her recent divorce, spends her daily commute fantasizing about the seemingly perfect couple who live in a house that her train passes every day, until one morning she sees something shocking happen there and becomes entangled in the mystery that unfolds.Emily Bluntleads an all-star cast inThe Girl on the Train, alongsideRebecca Ferguson,Haley Bennett,Justin Theroux,Luke Evans,Allison Janney,Edgar Ramirez,Lisa KudrowandLaura Prepon.Tate Taylor(The Help) directs from an adapted screenplay byErin Cressida Wilson(Men, Women and Children).

Set against the antebellum South,The Birth Of a Nationfollows Nat Turner (Nate Parker), a literate slave and preacher, whose financially strained owner, Samuel Turner (Armie Hammer), accepts an offer to use Nat’s preaching to subdue unruly slaves. As he witnesses countless atrocities - against himself and his fellow slaves - Nat orchestrates a slave uprising in the hopes of leading his people to freedom. The supporting cast includesJackie Earle Haley,Gabrielle Union,Penelope Ann Miller,Mark Boone Junior,Colman Domingo,Aunjanue Ellis,Aja Naomi KingandAlkoya Brunson.

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life, based onJames Patterson’s beloved novel, follows imaginative quiet teenager Rafe Katchadorian is tired of his middle school’s obsession with the rules at the expense of any and all creativity. Desperate to shake things up, Rafe and his best friends have come up with a plan: break every single rule in the school and let the students run wild}. The cast includesLauren Graham,Adam Pally,Rob Riggle,Efren Ramirez,Griffin Gluck,Isabela MonerandAndrew Daly.

The top 10 is rounded out byThe Birth of a Nation($7.1 million),Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life($6.9 million),Sully($5.2 million),Masterminds($4.1 million),Queen of Katwe$1.6 million. Also opening in limited release is FilmRise’sThe Greasy Strangler, which earned $25,000 from 11 theaters for a paltry $2,273 per-screen average. The Orchard’sBlue Jayearned $5,235 from one theaters, while ArtAffects’Voicelessearned $250,000 from 100 theaters for a $2,500 per-screen average. No box office data was released for Rialto’sThe Battle of Algiers, Strand’sBeing 17, Shout! Factory’sBlinky Bill, Cinestaan’sMirzya, Vertical Entertainment’sUnder the Shadow, Arc Entertainment’s documentaryTorchbearer, Well Go USA’sPhantasm: Remasteredand IMAX’sVoyage of Time: The IMAX Experience. We don’t know for sure if any of these limited release titles will expand in the weeks and months to come.

Looking ahead to next weekend, three new movies will open in wide release. Warner Bros.‘The Accountant, starringBen Affleck, will go up against Lionsgate’s stand-up comedy concert filmKevin Hart: What Now?and Open Road Films’Max Steel. Also opening in limited release is IFC’sCertain Women, STX Entertainment’sDesierto, Pantelion’sLa Leyenda del Chupacabras, Arc Entertainment’sMaya Angelou and Still I Rise, GKIDS’Miss Hokusai, Roadside Attractions’Priceless, Indican’sSearch Enginesand TriCoast Worldwide’sShadow World. Be sure to come back on Tuesday for next week’s wave of predictions, but until then, check out the top 10 estimates below, for the weekend of October 7.