WhileAvengers: Infinity Warhas easily dominated the first three weekends of summer, its time at the top has most likely come to an end. While there are three new movies hitting theaters this weekend, including the comediesBook ClubandShow Dogs, it will be the R-rated superhero action comedyDeadpool 2that will easily come out on top. If our projections are accurate, it will break its own record for the highest opening weekend for any R-rated movie, raking in a huge $153.7 million.
The most recent projections have putDeadpool 2at around $150 million, but given thebuzz swirling around the movie, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it go even higher. When the firstDeadpoolwas getting ready for its release, the initialbox officeprojections were at roughly $50 million, which, for an R-rated superhero movie is definitely a solid number, but the Merc With the Mouth managed to destroy those projections with a record-breaking $132.4 million. The movie would go on to earn $363 million, the second highest domestic tally for an R-rated movie, behind the 2004 faith-based hitThe Passion Of the Christ($370.7 million), and $783.1 million worldwide, the highest-grossing R-rated movie ever worldwide.
There’s a possibility that theDeadpool 2opening weekend is actually much higher, since thesequel is already faring better with critics, withDeadpool 2scoring an 85% rating out of 88 reviews (75 positive, 13 negative), which comes in just above the 83% score (255 positive, 51 rotten) of the originalDeadpool. The sequel also has a decided edge over the original when it comes to theater count, with the follow-up reportedly opening in an estimated 4,200 theaters, roughly 700 more than the original, which debuted in 3,558 theaters in February 2016. Global Road’sShow Dogsis set to open in approximately 3,000 theaters whileBook Clubdebuts in roughly 2,500 theaters.
We’re projecting that the top 5 will be rounded out by last weekend’s winner,Avengers: Infinity War, dropping to second place in its fourth weekend with $32.6 million, followed byLife of the Party($9.2 milion),Book Club($8.6 million) andBreaking In($8.3 million). The top 10 will likely be rounded out byShow Dogs($7.1 million),Overboard($5.6 million),A Quiet Place($3.1 million),I Feel Pretty($1.9 million) andRampage($1.7 million). IfBlack Pantherfinds a way to crack the top 10, it will be the 14th week in a row it has done so, which is certainly not a record (E.T.was in the top 10 for 35 straight weeks) but it will be the first time any movie has achieved this feat sinceAvatarin 2009.
Looking ahead to next week,Deadpool 2’s projected reign atop the box office will likely be quite short, with LucasFilm and Disney rolling outSolo: A Star Wars Storyin theaters over theMemorial Day holiday weekend.Solowill have no direct competition over the holiday frame, a rarity for any holiday weekend, but, then again, no one wants to compete with the box office juggernaut that has become theStar Warsfranchise. Take a look at our projections for the weekend of May 18, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo.
